Have we entered into phase 2 of the pandemic?

Daily thoughts & numbers on the COVID-19 pandemic from a M.D. working in the front lines at the Emergency Department in a hospital in Stockholm, Sweden. 

So the easter holidays have come and gone, and the now famous epidemiologist Anders Tegnell warned against reading too much into COVID-19 numbers over the weekend, since less data might have been reported due to less personal at the hospitals.

Well it’s tuesday and the holidays are now over, yet, judging by the data from the previous days (since the last bar/day updates tomorrow) the pandemic curve in Sweden doesn’t seem to be accelerating anymore:

Image: daily number of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden, taken from FHM. *

Perhaps it’s too soon to make any inferences just yet?

Or perhaps the worst is behind us?

The worst so far being the previous weekend, April 4th-5th, when I posted the following at day 13 — observing in that post that we were seeing similar war-like scenes as the ER at NY that was published the same weekend.

What was happening in NY was happening in Stockholm.

So, clearly, it’s too soon to make any conclusions, but maybe, just maybe, the worst wave is over?

If so, how bad will the second and third waves be?

And will there be 3rd and 2nd waves?

UPDATE 2020-04-14 at 19:15: 

More probably we’re only seeing a temporary fluctuation before exponential growth continues, as previously observed, the logarithmic graph from Aatish’s page illustrates this well: *

As I previously posted at day 4 of this daily journal, logarithmic graphs are better for visualizing exponential trends.

COVID-19 Numbers Sweden 2020-04-14 *

• 1 033 deaths nationally
  • 616 of them in Stockholm
• 11 445 confirmed cases nationally
  DEATHS [SWE]
  
  New confirmed deaths daily in Sweden. 
  (Number of COVID-19 cases over time in Sweden, updates during mornings at 14:00 so todays numbers are not yet complete until the next day).
  ICU [SWE]
  
  New Covid-19 patients Being Treated at the ICU in Sweden. 
  (Number of COVID-19 cases over time in Sweden, updates during mornings at 14:00 so todays numbers are not yet complete until the next day).
  NEW CONFIRMED CASES [SWE]  
  
  New confirmed cases daily in Sweden.
  (Number of COVID-19 cases over time in Sweden, updates during mornings at 14:00 so todays numbers are not yet complete until the next day).
  TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES [SWE]  
  
  New confirmed cases accumulated over time in Sweden. 
  (Number of COVID-19 cases over time in Sweden, updates during mornings at 14:00 so todays numbers are not yet complete until the next day).
  
• Intensive care Sweden: *
  • 887 COVID-19 confirmed patients treated in the ICU in total so far
  • 10,5 days from symptoms to ICU
  • 24,7 % women
    
    Total number of recorded of COVID-19 patients needing ICU care each week. From Week 10 it seems to more than triple each week for the first 4 weeks. From week ten: 5 →  24  → 129 → 425 → 760 → 1096 (1155 this week up until now, however since it’s only tuesday this weeks numbers are yet incomplete)

COVID-19 Numbers Globally (updated today 2020-04-14 at 19:00 CET) *

• 117 021 confirmed deaths
• 1 844 863 confirmed cases
• 5 692 new deaths

That’s it until tomorrow, keep calm and stay safe!